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Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Friday, June 23, 2017 20:07:56)

Hogs

Price action: July hog futures ended 27 1/2 cents higher, but the rest of the market ended with losses ranging from 12 1/2 cents to $1.22 1/2. For the week, July hogs posted a gain of $1.97 1/2 and October hogs posted a gain of $1.42 1/2. While the front-month contract remains pointed clearly higher, price action became choppy in the rest of the market this week as the cash market softened. Further cash weakness next week would convince traders the market has peaked, at least for now. This week's Cold Storage Report weighed on hog futures today, but carcass values have moved above the $100.00-per-cwt. level, which is supportive for the cash market. There was also disappointment this week surrounding news of construction delays at two plants scheduled for business this summer. Those plants are now expected to open in the fall, which will help packers keep up with rising supplies.


Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Friday, June 23, 2017 20:11:02)



Price action: Soybean futures favored a weaker tone in mixed trade. For the week, July beans posted a loss of 34 1/2 cents and November beans ended 39 cents lower. Bears clearly have momentum on their side heading into next week as more technical chart damage has been done. If the weather remains non-threatening, November soybeans could violate support at the August low of $9.03 1/2. Traders will also be evening positions ahead of USDA's key month-end reports. Traders expect the acreage data to reflect soybeans picked up some acres from March intentions. Stay in touch on advice to take profits on new-crop hedges on signs the market has bottomed. We may also take profits ahead of the June 30 reports. Focus will remain on the weather through August, which is critical for pod-filling. The less-than-favorable start to the growing season added some stress, but a return to favorable conditions has traders hopeful the crop will still be large. However, the absence of El Nino or La Nina makes weather more uncertain.




Corn: Afternoon Comments (Friday, June 23, 2017 20:10:24)

Corn futures saw two-sided trade today, but the market settled near session lows with losses around 5 cents, extending the downtrend. Futures posted sharp weekly losses, with the front-month down 26 1/4 cent and December 26 3/4 cents lower. The path of least resistance is down, as a benign weather forecast into early July means crop concerns and fund buying are limited. USDA's June 30 Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports will be major attention-getters. Our survey work signals corn likely lost acres versus March intentions, but the shift is likely to be fairly modest. July is the key development month for the corn crop, so weather will be a major focal point. Recent rains and mild temps with more such weather expected for the next 10 days to two weeks signals soil moisture should be ample during the pollination stage. But weather can certainly change in a hurry. Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier estimates that around half the crop will be pollinating by July 16.












Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Friday, June 23, 2017 20:11:38)



Price action: Winter wheat futures ended the day roughly 1 to 3 cents lower, while spring wheat closed 3 to 5 cents higher. For the week, July SRW futures posted a 6-cent loss, with July HRW futures down 9 1/4 cents. Meanwhile, July HRS futures posted a weekly gain of 18 1/2 cents. Bulls clearly hold momentum in spring wheat futures amid ongoing weather concerns, but futures are sharply overbought and vulnerable to a correction. This week's gains were spurred by another downtick in condition ratings, so all eyes will be on crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, back-and-forth price action in winter wheat futures signals that without the help of spring wheat, they would be lower amidst harvest pressure. Besides the U.S spring wheat crop, there are also concerns about the Canadian crop and a heat wave zapping portions of the European crop. USDA currently estimates global wheat carryover in 2017-18 will rise by 5.84 MMT from year-ago. Therefore, any reductions in those crops would help alleviate the burdensome supply situation.




Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Friday, June 23, 2017 20:12:11)

Cotton futures benefited from some corrective short-covering at week's end. Futures settled 26 to 151 points higher for the day, with the July contract leading gains. For the week, the market still posted hefty losses, with December cotton dropping 234 points. Momentum clearly favors bears, as cotton prices plummeted this week. That said, the market is technically oversold and could see some short-covering next week. But as attention zeroes in on the June 30 Acreage Report, buying is likely to be scarce, as most expect an increase from March intentions. That said, the recent price plunge means reaction to any uptick in acreage should be limited. With the June acreage update in the past, attention will shift back to the growing season. This week's Crop Progress Report reflected a five-point drop in the amount of top-rated cotton and the Gulf was hit with a lot of rain this week due to Tropical Storm Cindy. Whether heavy rains will benefit or harm the crop is uncertain.



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