FIRST LOOK, by Duane Lowry
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
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SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
At 6:59 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 1 lower, Wheat= 2 1/2 lower, Soybeans= 1 3/4 higher.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
March Corn: Support= $3.48-50, Resistance= $3.70.
*Probes below $3.50 will be well supported.
March Soybeans: Support= $10.10, Resistance= $10.45.
*Support and buying interest will begin to build above $10.00. Once again, this market has punished bears. Search for ownership opportunities.
March Wheat: Support= $4.00-05, Resistance= $4.35.
*Relatively minor near-term weakness will be well supported. Overall conditions are capable of building notable upside momentum in the weeks ahead. Upside potential during the next few months is significant. Search for ownership opportunities.
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:58 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $0.03, Gold up $1.10, Dow Index was up 33 and the US $ Index was up 46.
*Crude oil will stall out at current values and build trending lower action in the weeks ahead. Near-term strength offers selling opportunities.
*Gold has achieved price levels capable of producing stabilizing price action for a period of time. I have no interest in any bearish stance at this time. At the same time, I am unsure about a longer-term stance, as eventual further price erosion is not an unreasonable possibility.
*US Dollar Index has achieved some longer-term upside targets. Some pausing/corrective action is possible during the next several days/few weeks. Overall conditions remain capable of keeping the US Dollar well supported in the weeks/months ahead.
*Dow Index is in a bubble. This process will create a major and long-lasting top. Short-term technical conditions are poised for a downside turn and capable of building downside momentum. Charts appear very vulnerable to downside risks, with upside potential limited. Current levels offer selling opportunities.
Weather offers favorable South American conditions.
Wheat fundamental storylines are bearish, fully known and fully discounted. News is stale. The unknown fundamental factors are of far more interest to me at this time. I see merit in wanting to own the unknown. Short and longer-term technical support will build on minor near-term weakness. Search for ownership opportunities.
Corn news is stale. Yesterday’s price action was a surprise to many and trapped sellers from the previous four days. This will help to encourage buying interest to surface not too far below yesterday’s lows. That said, overall sentiment remains discouraged and few have little confidence in much strength potential. The Short and longer-term technical structure has the potential to build upside momentum during the next several weeks. Users have ample reasons to seek ownership. Producers have little incentive to make sales. I have no interest in any bearish stance. Search for ownership opportunities. Upside potential could be 25+ cents from current values.
Soybeans have again abruptly punished bears, despite a backdrop of clearly bearish fundamental storylines. I have no interest in any bearish stance at this time, despite bearish fundamental storylines. Search for ownership opportunities.
In summary, overall conditions are poised to build support on relatively minor near-term weakness and prompt firming price trends in the weeks ahead. Search for ownership opportunities.
Barge Values: Dec= +33 H
CH: Support= 3.48-50, Resistance= 3.70
**PROFILE: March Corn> Probes below $3.50 will be well supported. Upside target is something into the $3.80 zone. IN SUMMARY, focus on ownership opportunities, as upside potential is greater than current/recent discouraged sentiment suggests.
Barge Values: Dec= +38 F
SH: Support= 10.05-10, Resistance= 10.45
SMH: Support= 317, Resistance= 330
BOH: Support= 34.50, Resistance= 37.00
**PROFILE: March Soybeans> This market again abruptly punished bears, eclipsing more than 3 days’ worth of selling pressures in a single session. Test of support around $10.10 will unearth buying interest. Search for ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, I have no interest in any bearish stance, despite bearish fundamental profiles. Search for ownership opportunities.
Barge SRW Values: Dec= +33 H
WH: Support= 4.00-05, Resistance= 4.35
**PROFILE: Chicago March Wheat> Technical conditions are capable of building upside momentum in the weeks ahead. Search minor near-term weakness for ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, search for ownership opportunities.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: .
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Duane Lowry. All Rights Reserved.