FIRST LOOK, by Duane Lowry
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
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SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
At 7:04 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 1/2 lower, Wheat= 1 1/2 lower, Soybeans= 4 higher.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
March Corn: Support= $3.50, Resistance= $3.75.
*Current levels are capable of developing support and generating price action that can reverse losses of the past few days. Current levels offer ownership opportunities.
January Soybeans: Support= $?, Resistance= $10.60.
*I have no interest in any bearish stance.
March Wheat: Support= $4.02, Resistance= $4.35.
*Limited ability to build downside momentum. Today’s values offer ownership opportunities.
Outside Market Influences:
At 7:03 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.29, Gold up $3.10, Dow Index was up 13 and the US $ Index was down 31.
*Crude oil upside momentum is waning and could easily turn values lower as the day/week unfolds. Downside risk remains far more than recent rhetoric suggests. Current levels offer selling opportunities.
*Gold has achieved price levels capable of producing stabilizing price action. I have no interest in any bearish stance from here forward. We may see additional price erosion, but it is now reasonable for longer-term bulls to return to the marketplace at this time. Short-term bulls may also find encouragement for ownership at this time.
*US Dollar Index has achieved some longer-term upside targets. Some pausing/corrective action is possible during the next several days/few weeks. Overnight values eclipsed yesterday’s lows.
*Dow Index is in a bubble. This process will create a major and long-lasting top. Short-term technical conditions are poised for a downside turn. I wouldn’t be surprised if it begins today. Current levels offer selling opportunities.
Weather offers favorable South American conditions.
Wheat technical conditions are poised to soon turn price trends higher. Today’s values offer ownership opportunities.
Corn should see values firm as the day unfolds. Recent losses can be recovered rather quickly. Overall conditions point to strengthening values during the next few weeks. Current values offer ownership opportunities.
Soybeans fundamental storylines are bearish. I have no confidence in establishing positions based on the stale fundamental storylines at this time.
In summary, technical conditions are not conducive to trading any of these markets from the short side. Fundamental storylines are mature and fully known.
Barge Values: Dec= +33 H
CH: Support= 3.50, Resistance= 3.75
**PROFILE: March Corn> Technical conditions will provide support at current levels, limiting the ability to build/sustain downside momentum. Current values offer ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, recent highs can soon be violated, which will set the stage for a return to the highest values seen since July.
Barge Values: Dec= +38 F
SF: Support= ?, Resistance= 10.65
SMF: Support= ?, Resistance= 330
BOF: Support= ?, Resistance= 38.00
**PROFILE: January Soybeans> IN SUMMARY, I have no interest in any bearish stance.
Barge SRW Values: Dec= +33 H
WH: Support= 4.02, Resistance= 4.35
**PROFILE: Chicago March Wheat> Technical conditions are capable of turning price trends to the upside from current levels. Charts offer little incentive to trade this market from the short side. IN SUMMARY, today’s values offer ownership opportunities.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: .
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Duane Lowry. All Rights Reserved.