FIRST LOOK, by Duane Lowry
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
At 4:04 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 3/4 lower, Wheat= 3/4 lower, Soybeans= 10 1/4 lower.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
March Corn: Support= $3.50, Resistance= $3.75.
*Support should develop on any further weakness. Current levels offer ownership opportunities.
January Soybeans: Support= $?, Resistance= $10.60.
*Overnight weakness makes the charts appear vulnerable. I have no confidence that “this time" this market can be trusted to embrace bearish fundamental factors. I have no interest in any bearish stance.
March Wheat: Support= $4.02, Resistance= $4.35.
*Limited ability to build downside momentum. View weakness as offering ownership opportunities.
Outside Market Influences:
At 4:03 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.04, Gold down $8.30, Dow Index was up 20 and the US $ Index was up 28.
*Crude oil will build resistance around yesterday’s highs. Downside risk remains far more than recent rhetoric suggests. Current levels offer selling opportunities.
*Gold has achieved price levels capable of producing stabilizing price action. I have no interest in any bearish stance from here forward. We may see additional price erosion, but it is now reasonable for longer-term bulls to return to the marketplace at this time.
*US Dollar Index has achieved some longer-term upside targets. Some pausing/corrective action is possible during the next several days/few weeks. Yet, it remains possible that the overall tone here will be supportive for months to come. I see no reason to focus on picking a top, despite my willingness to recognize that much has been accomplished and that it may be time for this market to spend some time churning up here, which could include corrective weakness attempts during the next couple of weeks.
*Dow Index is in a bubble. This process will create a major and long-lasting top. Current levels offer selling opportunities.
Weather offers favorable/improving South American conditions.
Wheat will be supported on minor weakness. Bearish fundamental storylines are stale and fully discounted. Winterkill storyline is legitimate and should not be discarded just because of yesterday’s price action. Technical conditions are supportive. Current values offer ownership opportunities.
Corn will be well supported near overnight levels. Technical conditions are supportive. Bearish fundamental storylines are stale. Search for ownership opportunities.
Soybeans were notably lower overnight. Fundamental storylines have been bearish for some time, but price action hasn’t really followed fundamental storylines since a pre-harvest timeframe. I have no confidence that “this time" this market can be trusted to embrace bearish fundamental factors. I have no interest in any bearish stance.
In summary, wheat and corn offer little incentive to trade from the short side. Soybeans look weak with the overnight trade and its appearance impact to the charts. I have no interest in any bearish stances at this time.
Barge Values: Dec= +31 H
CH: Support= 3.50, Resistance= 3.75
**PROFILE: March Corn> Technical conditions will provide support at current levels, limiting the ability to build downside momentum. Search weakness for ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, we seem poised for a price strengthening move that will take us back to the highest values seen since July, but it is difficult to offer a fundamental storyline for such a conclusion.
Barge Values: Dec= +38 F
SF: Support= ?, Resistance= 10.65
SMF: Support= ?, Resistance= 330
BOF: Support= ?, Resistance= 38.00
**PROFILE: January Soybeans> Overnight weakness makes the charts appear vulnerable. IN SUMMARY, I have no confidence that “this time" this market can be trusted to embrace bearish fundamental factors. I have no interest in any bearish stance.
Barge SRW Values: Dec= +30 H
WH: Support= 4.02-05, Resistance= 4.35
**PROFILE: Chicago March Wheat> Charts offer little incentive to trade this market from the short side. IN SUMMARY, search for ownership opportunities.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: .
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Duane Lowry. All Rights Reserved.