Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, December 18, 2016
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OPENING CALL: Corn= steady-firm; Wheat= higher; Soybeans= well-supported.
Weather produced winterkill conditions this weekend for 50% or more of the US hard red winter wheat region. Some of the areas impacted also experienced poor (dry) conditions this fall, setting the stage that damage from this event could be more significant. South American weather is improving, with weekend moisture and upcoming moisture expectations, although this is not significantly different than Friday’s weather expectations.
Wheat will find initial support from the colder than expected weekend US temps and ideas notable winterkill losses occurred on 50% or more of the US hrw wheat region. Technical conditions have been supported for several days, suggesting both limited downside potential and likely upside activity. Friday’s price action was supportive and all this will lead to strength tonight.
Corn will find some spillover buying from the wheat winterkill storyline. Corn technical conditions have also been supportive/improving, with Friday’s action responding well to support levels. This market has desires to push higher and we can unearth both short-covering and new buying interest in the days ahead.
Soybeans have been largely unwilling/incapable of sustaining bearish reactions to generally favorable Brazilian conditions during the past several weeks and an improving Argentine weather forecast for most of last week. Technical conditions are supportive and seem capable of pushing values above the November highs. So, tonight we will again have a bearish South American weather spin, but technical conditions suggest that any weakness, if it occurs, will be well supported. While overall fundamental conditions and outlooks remain bearish, this market acts as if it has plans to make another upside push in the weeks ahead.
In summary, US wheat winterkill conditions seems like the main fundamental focus tonight. Price action has been more supportive/resilient than fundamental-based forecasts have expected for several weeks. We seem likely to have a firm/well-supported market tone tonight/this week.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
© 2016 Duane Lowry. All Rights Reserved.