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FIRST LOOK, by Duane Lowry
Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Post-report Reaction:
At 11:16 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 1/4 higher,     Wheat= 4 1/4 higher,     Soybeans= 12 higher.

*At 11:00 am, cst, THIS MORNING, USDA issued the following

US Corn= 15.057 bil, vs estimates of 15.040 bil avg, range= 14.713-15.200, Sep USDA= 15.093, 2015=13.601
Soybeans= 4.269 vs 4.277 avg, range= 4.147-4.357, Sep USDA= 4.201, 2015= 3.929

Corn= 173.4, vs estimates of 173.4 bpa avg, range= 169.5-175.2, Sep USDA= 174.4, 2015= 168.4
Soybeans= 51.4, vs 51.4 bpa avg, range= 50.1-52.5, Sep USDA= 50.6, 2015= 48.0

US Ending Stocks>
Corn= 2.320 bil, vs estimates of 2.362 avg, range= 2.181-2.662, Sep= 2.384
Soybeans= 395 mil, vs 415 avg, range= 325-475, Sep= 365
Wheat= 1.138 bil, vs 1.151 avg, range= 1.050-1.300, Sep= 1.100

In summary, post-report reactions can be best summed-up by saying the Bears were disappointed yet again. Trader sentiment was universally bearish soybeans and there are a lot of shorts that could be forced to the exit door in the days ahead. Wheat has been poised for a rally and has plenty of room to run to the upside. Corn trader sentiment has been more mixed, but there are many, many users that find themselves with inadequate ownership. Producer selling interest will surface 20+ cents above yesterday’s settlement. Technical conditions are capable of producing such strength. Basically, I don’t see anything in today’s data or post-report price action that says I should alter the basic themes that I have been discussing for weeks.                                            

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account.

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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