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by Duane Lowry

Monday, March 7, 2016

Corn stagnated during the day session and was unable to build upon the overnight strength as suspected. This led to selling interest late in the session, settling up 3/4 of a cent. News is stale. Short-term technical conditions leave open the possibility that we will experience a probe below last week’s lows, but such weakness will lack scope and sustainability.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Soybeans only marginally built upon the overnight strength, spending much of the day in a narrow range. Prices eased in the final 45 minutes of trade to settle up 3 1/4 cents. Technical conditions will encourage buying interest to build under the market, but key support levels are about 12 cents below today’s settlement, suggesting some near-term vulnerability to weakness. Overall conditions point to more upside potential during the next few months than current rhetoric suggests.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Wheat firmed above the overnight highs, but faltered by the closing bell, settling up 3 1/4 cents. News is stale. Some dryness concerns for the south-western one-third of the US hrw wheat region, but price action hasn’t seemed to consistently follow any such storyline. Short-term technical conditions will encourage buying interest to build in the $4.55 area, basis Chicago May futures. Overall conditions point to notable price recovery activity in the weeks ahead. Near-term weakness should be searched for ownership opportunities.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

In summary, wheat, corn and soybeans all found it difficult to sustain overnight gains and/or early morning strength. Short-term technical conditions offer some warnings of near-term weakness as I described this morning. Overall conditions suggest near-term weakness needs to be searched for ownership opportunities, as upside potential during the next few months can be quite notable from current levels and much more than prevailing sentiment suggests. At 1:15: Crude= up $1.76, Gold= down $2.20, Dow Index= up 78 and the US Dollar= down 18, May Corn up 3/4 of a cent, May Soybeans up 3 1/4 cents and May Wheat up 2 cents.

WEATHER: Midday weather forecasts offered little influence to price action and were largely unchanged from this morning’s discussion.                                 

*March 9, 11:00 am, USDA monthly S&D report.

Monday night's grain trade outlook: We seem poised for a quietly weaker tone. If crude oil falters during the night session, it will weigh on market sentiment.                                                                                                              

Humor/Quote of the Day:
If you say you’re cooler than me…Does that make me hotter than you?
-- Unknown.

Raisin cookies that look like chocolate chip cookies are the main reason I have trust issues.
-- Unknown.

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. is your source for ag news and information on crop pest identification, commodity and market prices, agricultural news & issues, and access to crop production management tools such as crop yield & planting calculators and herbicide, fungicide, and weed control information.