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AFTERNOON COMMENTS
by Duane Lowry

Friday, February 19, 2016

FUTURES:
Corn experienced a quiet and uneventful day, settling unchanged. News is stale. Export sales data was better than expected. Short-term technical conditions will encourage buying interest to build within a few cents of today’s settlement, suggesting minimal downside potential, with little likelihood that downside activity can develop momentum or sustainability. Seasonal trends are becoming more supportive. Search weakness for ownership opportunities.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Soybeans spent the entire day in a 4-cent range, settling down 1 1/2 cent. This is quite pathetic for traders looking for reasons to be involved. News is stale. Trader sentiment remains bearish, but price action has disappointed Bears for much of the past several months. Overall technical conditions suggest there will be little ability to build downside momentum below recent lows. Short-term technical conditions will encourage buying interest to surface just a few/several cents below today’s settlement. Search weakness for ownership opportunities.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wheat also produced an uneventful session, settling down 1/2 cent. News is stale. Potential to build downside momentum below those lows should be limited. Search near-term weakness for ownership opportunities.                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

In summary, near-term weakness potential below today’s settlements will be very limited. We are entering a timeframe where seasonal trends tend to improve. The weeks/months ahead will find focus shifting to the unknowns of a new US production season. Improving price trends are ahead. View minor near-term weakness as offering good ownership opportunities. At 1:15: Crude= down $0.80, Gold= up $2.60, Dow Index= down 55 and the US Dollar= down 34, March Corn unch, March Soybeans down 1 1/2 cents and March Wheat down 1/2 cent.

WEATHER: Midday weather forecasts offered little influence to price action and were largely unchanged from this morning’s discussion.                                 
                              
NEWS:.   

REPORT WATCH:
*
Export Sales data released at 7:30 this morning: Wheat= 308 tmt, vs estimates of 200-400 tmt, Corn= 1050 tmt, vs 600-1250 tmt, Soybeans= 567 tmt, vs 250-850 tmt.

Sunday night's grain trade outlook: More quiet trading activity seems most probable, with outside markets helping to set initial tone. Early week weakness needs to be seen as offering ownership opportunities.                                                                                                              

Humor/Quote of the Day:
If you say you’re cooler than me…Does that make me hotter than you?
-- Unknown.

Raisin cookies that look like chocolate chip cookies are the main reason I have trust issues.
-- Unknown.

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

 

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